"Bradley Effect" Real in NH?

Some of you may be aware of the debate still raging as to why Barack Obama went into the NH primary with up to an 11 point lead in the polls and Hillary Clinton emerged with a 3 point victory. Some contend that it is the result of the so-called "Bradley Effect."

In the 1982 California gubernatorial election, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American, enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls against his white Republican opponent George Deukmejian going into the election--but Deukmejian won. It turned out that a large number of white voters had either lied to the pollsters about their willingness to back Bradley, or had changed their mind on polling day and decided to vote for Deukmejian. [Judis, The New Republic]

Many pundits, including Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post and Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic believe that the Bradley Effect may very well be the root of the voting surprise. Others, however, are not so sure.

John B. Judis of The New Republic does not believe that this particular form of racial bias was at play in New Hampshire. While I hope that he is correct on moral grounds, he lays out a logical hypothesis for his argument on intellectual grounds. His analysis of various polls as they breakdown into educational and economic levels provides pieces of the puzzle that others relying on less precise methodology have been missing. Right or wrong, this piece is worth a look.

12 January 2008