A writing today on TPM outlines what I think is pretty much spot-on analysis of the likely outcomes of the cases this week before the Supreme Court dealing with gay rights. While there absolutely is a guarantee for gay rights -- and within that for gay marriage (e.g marriage) -- within the American Constitution, I am not hopeful that Justice Kennedy will affirm these rights broadly. I'd put that chance at about 15%. I figure there is a 70% chance that any pro-gay rights ruling will apply only to California in the Prop 8 case. The other 15% is for an 8-state gay rights ruling, but that is less likely if the DOMA ruling is on a state's rights footing as seems likely. Regardless, I think there is about a 90% likelihood that DOMA is dead, which is good.
I hope that I will be surprised and that my country will morally leap forward. It would, unfortunately, be a surprise.
28 March 2013
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